How to Spot Unforeseen Circumstances Before They Hurt Your Business [8 ways]

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”

This piece of wisdom is variously attributed to Mark Twain, Will Rogers, Josh Billings and others (see here). While there is some truth to this quotation, it’s somewhat misleading. Trouble comes not only when you think you know something you don’t, but when you just simply don’t know something.

What you don’t know CAN get you into trouble.

In future business planning, there are a lot of things you don’t know.

For example, you don’t know what the weather will be like next month - like what happened with the unexpected smoky air over the northeast in June 2023, canceling many outdoor events and the related business plans.

You don’t know if there will be a massive recall on one of your products - like what happened to Samsung’s Note 7 in 2016 over a concern with the battery.

And you don’t know if there will be another serious supply chain disruption - like what happened after the Covid-19 pandemic.

How You Can Prepare For An Uncertain Future

It is, of course, impossible to know the future. But this doesn’t mean you shouldn’t try! Merely attempting to predict unforeseen consequences prepares you to deal with unexpected circumstances, whatever they turn out to be.

Going through the following exercises won’t necessarily give you fortune-telling ability. But they will bring to light vulnerabilities you had previously overlooked. By addressing these vulnerabilities, you’ll be better equipped to deal with whatever unexpected events come your way.

Ways to Prepare for Unforeseen Circumstances

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1. Use the “10th Person Doctrine”

Do you like it when everybody agrees?

You shouldn’t!

If everybody is in agreement, that is often a sure sign that some important detail has been overlooked. Worse yet, it means you’ve fallen prey to the ‘G’ word - “Groupthink.”

The iconic president & CEO of General Motors, Alfred P. Sloan, famously postponed an important meeting at which all attendees were in agreement until they could develop disagreement and “perhaps gain some understanding of what the decision is all about.”

Do not make a decision if there is no disagreement. Keep looking for a possibility you may have missed.

One way to achieve this goal is to implement the “10th Person Doctrine.” According to this technique, you appoint somebody who MUST object to whatever decision is being made. This 'tenth' person assumes that the other nine (or however many there are) are wrong. They must then come up with some explanation why the decision is wrong and could lead to adverse effects. Going through this exercise will often help you anticipate unforeseen events you otherwise might not have considered.

(Fun fact: the name “10th Man Doctrine” come from Brad Pitt’s film “World War Z” when an Israeli official credits its for Israel properly predicting and preparing for the zombie apocalypse in that movie. It is based on an actual procedure used by Israeli intelligence. For more info, read Bryce Hoffman’s Red Teaming.)

2. Pretend You Are the Devil

This is similar to a technique I’ve recommended before. It’s one of my favorite techniques and for a good reason: it’s highly versatile, effective and easy to use. (And for bonus points, its roots can be traced back to one of the most famous philosophers of all time, Rene Descartes).

The idea in this technique is to pretend you're an evil demon with supernatural powers. If you were, what would you do to foil your company's current business plan. How would you manipulate to do so?

If you want to modernize this technique, suppose that our universe is really just a large computer simulation. Elon Musk thinks this is the case. And believe it or not, there are some really good philosophical arguments for this claim. But that’s another topic for another day.

Anyway, as I was saying … imagine that our world (or economy, or business landscape, or whatever) is really just part of a computer simulation. Then put yourself in the role of the person in charge of the simulation. Pretend that the world is your “Sims” game.

How could you ‘rig’ the game to make your company’s plan turn out badly.?

How could you rewrite the computer code to make the ‘sure thing’ go wrong?

How could you create the most entertaining scenario that ruins your plan?

Once you go through this creative exercise, you will have identified several unanticipated consequences that might adversely affect your company. As an added bonus, you will probably discover new and innovative ways to carry out your business plans.

3. Determine Your ‘Plan B’ In Case of an Alien Invasion

Who knows if aliens exist or not … but you should assume they do!

imagine that aliens landed today. If they did, how would that affect your current business plan? How would you pivot? Take 30 minutes to brainstorm with your team about contingency plans in such a scenario.

The point of such exercises is to spark the mind to go down rabbit holes that may reveal some REAL vulnerabilities ... even if aliens do not invade. By analyzing scenarios such as this, your business will be better prepared for whatever unanticipated events arise.

4. Make Business Decisions Opposed to Our Cognitive Biases

I’ve got some good news, some bad news and some worse news.

The bad news?

Most of the people you interact with - including your customers, colleagues, bosses, and vendors - think and behave irrationally. (I’m guessing you already knew this!)

The worse news?

You think and behave irrationally too!

The truth of the matter is that even though we ‘think’ we are rational and sensible thinkers, we are not. Psychology has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that many of our actions and thoughts are the result of subconscious, irrational, and emotional influences over which we have little control. (For a sampling of the research, see here, here, and here.)

“The truth of the matter is that even though we ‘think’ we are rational and sensible thinkers, we are not”

As a philosophy professor devoted to teaching critical thinking and rational thought, I resisted this fact for a long time. In fact, my sub-specialty of mediaeval philosophy makes a big deal of defining humans as “rational animals.” To be a human means to be rational - or so I thought.

I eventually came to acknowledge the truth we often act based upon irrational ways of thinking known “cognitive biases.”

So what is the good news in all of this?

The good news is that we can use our knowledge of cognitive biases to help us plan for an unpredictable future.

Go through a list of cognitive biases and decide how someone who is under the influence of each bias would act or decide. Then, do the opposite.

Going through this simple exercise will make you more aware of how you might act emotionally and irrationally. It can also prevent costly mistakes and save you time.

Equally important, you can use this idea to help you plan for unexpected circumstances. Explore how someone else (your customer, supplier, boss, etc.) would react to your plans if they were under the influence of a cognitive bias. (By the way - that IS probably how they will react!).

What would you do to account for that action?

What would your reaction be?

How would you adjust to their irrational response?

Once you’ve done this, you will be prepared for what would otherwise be unexpected developments in your business plan.

(If you don’t have a list of cognitive biases on your nightstand, you can find a long list here or you can contact me for personal help.)

5. Compare Belief in Success to Reason for Belief in Success

We all believe our plans will work. If we didn’t believe in our plans, we wouldn’t attempt to carry them out.

But do we have good reasons to believe our plans will work?

More often than not, we don’t. We idealize scenarios and hope things work out, fooling ourselves into thinking that we have good reasons. Our optimism gets in the way and we subconsciously focus on all the positives instead of the negatives.

In order to counterbalance to this overly optimistic tendency, go through the following procedure.

Ask your team to rate on a scale of 1-10 how much they “believe” the current plan will work. Then, ask them to what degree they have "reason" to believe the current plan will work.

If different (spoiler alert: it should be!), what accounts for the difference?

Have them explore the space between their confidence in their “belief” and their confidence in their "reasons.” Do they have good reasons for their belief? Or is their confidence in the plan based upon hope and wishful thinking? What accounts for the difference of degrees?

Going through this exercise often reveals hidden assumptions behind your plan. In turn, this helps you anticipate otherwise unforeseen dangers that threaten your business.

6. Reverse Your Best Case Scenario

Our tendency to idealize scenarios and think optimistically gives us another tool to prepare for future uncertainties. Put the best case scenario in reverse!

Begin by envisioning the best case scenario for your plan. What are all of the steps in the best case scenario playing out?

Now, take each of those steps and reverse them. What's the opposite of each step playing out as expercted? How could each of those steps go wrong? The answer to these questions are many of the ways your plan can go awry.

Going through this exercise will help you identify many of the future contingencies that can derail your business plans. You can then plan accordingly.

7. Instead of Thinking Inside-out, Go Outside-in

To solve a problem and prepare for unforeseen circumstances, it is sometimes better to think outside-in.

Usually, we think inside out - we start with a problem, and think about how to solve it. In outside-in thinking, you want to do the opposite - think of outside forces related to the problem, and then work in.

How can you to this? Follow these steps (suggested in Bryce Hoffman’s Red Teaming.)

A. List external societal forces that could have a bearing on your business or problem.
B. Consider which of those forces your company might be able to influence.
C. Think about how each of those forces could exert both positive and negative effects on your company and problem.
D. How could you subtly influence those forces to exert positive, instead of negative, effects.

In a similar vein, you could apply the method of “inversion” I’ve blogged about here.

8. Play the Alphabet Game

When all else fails, you can always resort to an oldie but a goodie - the alphabet game.

We used to play versions of this game all the time as children, but as adults we think we’re beyond it.

Think again.

Playing the alphabet game is a great and fun way to spark creativity and get your problem-solving juices flowing.

Go through the alphabet and think of a potential way your product or plan can fail beginning with each letter of the alphabet. It doesn't matter how extreme an idea you have - just come up with something (anything!) that fits each letter. Let your imagination loose.

Doing this can not only turn into a fun team-building exercise - it will also help you see potential pitfalls you have not thought about before.

You Can Plan for Unexpected Circumstances

Socrates, the father of Western philosophy, was deemed the wisest person in the ancient world because he knew only one thing:

He KNEW that he didn’t know anything.

You are like Socrates. You also know one thing about the future.

You KNOW that you don’t know what the future will bring.

To paraphrase an old maxim, the only thing you can be certain about in business is that there will be uncertainty.

Expect the unexpected!

The future is unpredictable - it’s an unknown. But at least it’s a “known unknown” that you can prepare for.

By implementing some of the suggestions mentioned above, you will be better prepared to meet the unforeseen future and adapt to its unexpected circumstances.

If you are looking for a conference speaker or trainer, I offer a session specifically focused on anticipating future consequences entitled “You can ‘almost’ predict the future (sort of).” Contact me to book me as a speaker or trainer for your next event.

Did you find these ideas useful? If so, let me know how they helped your organization. Read my other blog posts here. Sign up for my weekly newsletter HERE for more tips to optimize soft skills in your business environment. You can also follow Philosophy 4 Business Leaders on LinkedIn and browse my website www.philosophy4business.com. Finally, share this blog with others through your social media channels by clicking the relevant icon below.